Declining Childhood Vaccination Rates in Australia Raise Serious Concerns for Herd Immunity

✅A Worrying Downward Trend in Vaccination Coverage

Vaccination coverage among Australian children and teenagers has experienced a marked decline in recent years, sparking alarm among public health experts.

Data released by the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) on Thursday highlighted this widespread drop across multiple vaccines and age groups, a trend that has persisted since 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. 😷

Most concerningly, in some regions and for certain vaccines, immunisation rates have slipped below the critical threshold necessary to sustain herd immunity,  the protective effect that occurs when enough individuals in a population are vaccinated to prevent disease spread, thereby protecting those who cannot be vaccinated.

Vaccines covered in the report include those protecting against:

• Whooping cough (pertussis)

• Diphtheria

• Tetanus

• Rotavirus

• Pneumococcal disease

• Polio

• Hepatitis B

• Four strains of meningococcal disease

• Measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR)

• Human papillomavirus (HPV) — targeted at teenagers

The Data: Alarming Drops Across Age Groups

Gary Grohmann, Director of the Immunisation Coalition and former World Health Organisation consultant, described the figures as absolutely alarming, pointing out that the decline threatens the hard-won gains achieved over previous decades.

The statistics show:

• The proportion of children fully up-to-date with their immunisations by 12 months has dropped from 94.8% in 2020 to 91.6% in recent data.

• By age two, full vaccination rates declined from 92.1% to 89.4% over the same period.

• For children aged five, rates fell from 94.8% to 92.7%.

These figures demonstrate a consistent downward pattern that cannot be ignored. 📉

HPV Vaccination Uptake Among Adolescents Particularly Worrying

HPV Vaccine Uptake Decline Among Teenagers 📉

Dr Grohmann expressed serious concern regarding this drop, noting that when adolescent vaccination coverage falls below 80%, the risk of outbreaks and disease resurgence increases sharply.

If coverage starts slipping into the 80 per cent range, it becomes critical,” he said. “As virologists and microbiologists, we understand that approximately 95 per cent vaccination coverage is required to maintain herd immunity and prevent outbreaks. ⚠️

Geographic Disparities and Regional Concerns

Certain areas in Australia are faring worse than others.

Some regions have reported that only 75 per cent of two-year-olds are fully vaccinated, well below the national average.

This raises the possibility of localised outbreaks of preventable diseases like measles and whooping cough.

With these lower numbers, we will inevitably see an increase in disease spread, particularly measles, Dr Grohmann warned.

More hospitalisations are likely, and despite Australia’s excellent healthcare system, severe disease and deaths could occur.🏥

Measles: An Emerging Threat

A resurgence of measles cases has also been noted recently, prompting health authorities to issue warnings to the public.

The NCIRS data reveal that Australia’s vaccination rates have slipped back to levels not seen since 2014, effectively reversing years of progress.

Frank Beard, Associate Director of NCIRS, underscored the significance of this decline: The downward trend since the pandemic is definitely a cause for concern. Herd protection is vital, especially for highly contagious diseases such as measles.”

The resurgence of measles, a disease once nearly eliminated in Australia, highlights how fragile herd immunity is and the consequences of declining vaccine coverage. ⚠️

Personal Stories Highlight the Human Cost of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

Bruce and Ashley Langoulant’s story puts a deeply human face on these statistics. Their daughter Ashley (now 35) contracted pneumococcal meningitis as an infant before a vaccine was available.

Bruce vividly recalls rushing his baby daughter to the emergency department with seizures and a fever. She was almost lifeless, Bruce said.

Although Ashley survived, she was left with profound disabilities — cerebral palsy, epilepsy, deafness, non-verbal communication, and wheelchair dependence.

We didn’t have the choice to vaccinate Ash back then.

Now, 35 years later, we’re still living with the consequences, Bruce explained.

Bruce has been a tireless advocate for immunisation ever since, helping to introduce the pneumococcal vaccine into Australia’s National Immunisation Program in the early 2000s.

Ash’s experience is a warning and a legacy — this is what happens when children aren’t vaccinated against preventable diseases.

The Call for Renewed Public Health Initiatives

Both Dr Grohmann and Dr Beard emphasise the need to reinstate and expand vaccination programs similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic — such as:

• Pop-up and mobile vaccination clinics in community settings

• After-hours vaccination services for working parents

• School-based immunisation programs

These strategies have been shown to improve vaccine accessibility and uptake, especially among families facing barriers such as:

• Cost of medical appointments

• Difficulty securing timely vaccination appointments

• Parental anxiety or distress about vaccinations

A National Vaccination Insights project involving NCIRS found that around 10% of parents experienced cost or appointment access as barriers, while approximately 60% reported feeling distressed when considering vaccinating their children. 😟

Vaccine Hesitancy and Misinformation as Major Obstacles

Persistent distrust in vaccines and misinformation continue to hinder immunisation efforts. Among parents with unvaccinated children:

• Nearly 47% reported they would not feel guilty if their child contracted a vaccine-preventable illness

• Close to 48% expressed doubts about vaccine safety

This highlights the critical need for trusted, consistent, and science-based communication from healthcare professionals and public health bodies.

Medical professionals play a pivotal role in educating and reassuring parents, Dr Grohmann stressed.

With so much misinformation online, clear and empathetic communication is more important than ever.

Impact of the Pandemic on Teen Vaccination and School Attendance

Dr Beard noted that HPV vaccination rates have also suffered due to reduced school attendance during and after the pandemic.

As adolescent vaccination programs are largely delivered in schools, absenteeism has led to missed opportunities for immunisation.

School attendance hasn’t fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, which has affected adolescent vaccine delivery, he explained.

Re-engaging teens with vaccination programs as school attendance normalises will be essential to reversing this trend.

What Needs to Happen Next?

To restore Australia’s childhood vaccination rates to safe levels, a coordinated, multi-pronged approach will be necessary:

• Reinstate convenient vaccination services: Pop-up clinics, after-hours options, and school-based programs should be expanded.

• Combat misinformation: Government and health bodies must deliver clear, accurate, and culturally sensitive vaccine education.

• Support parents: Address vaccine anxiety through empathetic communication and readily accessible expert advice.

• Monitor and target regional disparities: Tailor interventions to areas with the lowest vaccine uptake.

• Make vaccination free and accessible: Remove cost and access barriers to ensure no child misses vaccines due to financial or logistical reasons.

Australia’s health system has historically been a world leader in immunisation success.

However, the pandemic’s impact and rising vaccine hesitancy now threaten this progress.

Swift and decisive action is imperative to protect vulnerable children and the broader community from outbreaks of preventable diseases. 💉